Cost + savings
Should I go solar now or wait? (2026 timing answer)
The most common 2026 question we get: "Should I do this now or wait?" The honest answer depends on three variables that are knowable for your specific home — not on whether "solar prices are going down" generally.
Variable 1 is your federal credit status (a CPA question, not an installer question). Variable 2 is whether your utility's net-metering or buy-back rate is improving or degrading. Variable 3 is whether you have an aging HVAC unit, a 12+-year-old roof, or other home-system decisions tied to your timing.
The three variables that actually decide your timing
- Federal Residential Clean Energy Credit (Section 25D): a question your CPA answers based on your tax situation. We do not give tax advice. Bring your CPA in early — they can model the year you'd actually use the credit.
- Your utility's net-metering or buy-back rate trajectory: improving in some markets, degrading in others. Texas is variable by utility — we look up your address-specific rate during the design.
- Your home's other system decisions: a 14-year-old roof should be re-shingled before solar. A failing 16-SEER AC unit is best replaced before sizing the system. Solar timing should sync with these decisions, not run in parallel.
Cases where waiting is the right answer
- Roof needs replacement within 5 years — re-roof first, then install solar on the new roof. Otherwise you're paying for two panel removals.
- Major addition or renovation planned in the next 12 months that changes your roof footprint or load profile.
- Your CPA tells you the federal credit doesn't apply to your tax situation this year — wait for a year it does.
- You're moving in less than 3 years — payback math is tight.
Cases where now is the right answer
- Your roof is in good shape (5+ years of remaining life) and you're staying 5+ years.
- Your utility is shifting net-metering toward less-favorable terms — earlier interconnection often grandfathers you into better rates.
- Summer cooling cost is consistently above $250/month — solar payback is fastest at high consumption.
- You're planning to buy an EV, heat pump, or pool in the next 2 years — sizing the solar to your new load is cheaper than retrofitting.
- You have grid-reliability concerns (Texas, Florida, California) — earlier installation gets the battery in before the next major event.
What 'price is going down' actually means
Hardware prices have come down over time, yes — panel costs have dropped roughly 5-8% per year over the last decade. But labor, permitting, and electrical work haven't followed. The all-in installed price has been roughly flat in real dollars since 2022. "Wait for prices to drop" is the kind of advice that costs a homeowner $200/month for two more years of utility bills while saving them $1,500 on the install.
The math that actually matters is your specific payback period at your specific utility's current rate. Most Texas homes hit 6-9 year payback today. Waiting 24 months changes that by less than a year, while costing you $4-8k in deferred bills.
Common questions
Frequently asked
- Is the federal solar tax credit going away?
- Tax credit availability and amount is a CPA question — we don't give tax advice. Federal solar credit policy is set by Congress and revisited periodically. Talk to your CPA early in your decision so they can model your specific year and claim.
- Are solar panels going to be cheaper next year?
- Hardware: probably slightly. All-in installed price: probably flat — labor and permitting offset hardware drops. Waiting two years for a 3% price reduction while paying $200/month in utility bills is a $4,800 mistake.
- What if I just got a new roof — should I install now?
- Yes, this is one of the best timings. Solar mounts are designed to be installed once, on a fresh roof. Installing on a 1-2 year old roof maximizes the 25-year service life of both the roof and the panels (no re-mount mid-life).